April 20, 2026

TL;DR — Major Blocks

• Anthropic's run-rate is marching from $30B toward $60B and secondary marks have breached $1T.
• Neuralink is moving to high-volume production and near-fully automated surgery, with Blindsight heading to first-in-human this year.
• ByteDance has rerated past $600B as the TikTok overhang clears. Six Watchlist names follow.

TL;DR — Watchlist.

• OpenAI introduced GPT-5.4-Cyber through a tiered Trusted Access program, with annualized revenue crossing $25B.
• Databricks closed $5B equity plus $2B debt at a $134B valuation in February.
• Isomorphic Labs closed its first external round — $600M led by Thrive Capital.
• Varda's W-4 capsule is in orbit producing the first pharma-grade monoclonal-antibody crystals, following its $187M Series C.
• Surge AI is in market for its first-ever capital raise — roughly $1B at a $25–30B valuation.
• Shield AI closed a $2B Series G at $12.7B on March 26, alongside the acquisition of Aechelon Technology.

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Anthropic — Run-Rate Toward $60B, Secondary Marks Toward $1T

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What happened

Anthropic dominated the April tape. On April 16, the company released Claude Opus 4.7, its most capable generally-available model, with meaningful gains in software engineering, long-horizon agent reliability, and instruction-following — plus new effort controls and task-budget tooling aimed squarely at the enterprise agent market. Alongside Opus 4.7, Anthropic disclosed that it had trained a more powerful model, Claude Mythos, which it is releasing only as a limited preview after internal evaluations found it too capable in offensive-cyber domains for broad deployment. Mythos Preview is being deployed through Project Glasswing, a new program focused on hardening critical software against AI-enabled threats.

Two other April data points matter for LPs. First, on April 6 Anthropic announced a material expansion of its Google Cloud and TPU footprint, with multiple gigawatts of new capacity coming online from 2027 — a direct response to compute being the primary constraint on commercial growth. Second, on April 14, Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust appointed Vas Narasimhan (Novartis CEO) to the board — a signal of sustained focus on life-sciences go-to-market.

Revenue and secondary pricing

Anthropic closed its $30B Series G at a $380B post-money in February 2026. By mid-April, TechCrunch and Bloomberg reported preemptive offers valuing the company north of $800B — effectively a 2.1x markup in ten weeks. Anthropic has declined the offers to date, which has pushed demand onto the secondary market.

The revenue picture has moved again. Anthropic's own disclosure confirmed run-rate revenue crossing $30B, up from roughly $19B in early March and $9B at year-end 2025. Industry insider plus buyer-side desk chatter now indicate run-rate is approaching $60B as enterprise seats and Claude Code usage compound; over 1,000 enterprise customers are now spending more than $1M annually on Claude, double the count at the Series G. Altimeter's Brad Gerstner has publicly argued run-rate could triple again through 2026 toward $100B. On the back of that trajectory, implied secondary marks on several platforms have pushed the company past a $1 trillion valuation — a level first flagged publicly by Polymarket and echoed in secondary coverage. For us, the read-through is that the $800B preemptive-offer headline is already stale on some platforms; our pipeline is seeing indicative bids printed against $1T–$1.2T, though depth is thin and blocks clear with notable price dispersion. We are treating $1T as a psychological ceiling for SPV pricing this quarter and sizing allocations accordingly.

Sources — Anthropic

•   CNBC — Anthropic rolls out Claude Opus 4.7 (Apr 16, 2026)

‍•   Bloomberg — Anthropic Attracts Investor Offers at $800B Valuation (Apr 14, 2026)

•   Anthropic on X — Run-rate revenue surpassed $30B

•   Polymarket — Anthropic implied $1T+ on secondary platforms

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Neuralink — From Single-Digit Patients to Industrial Scale

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What happened

Neuralink's April update marks a discrete phase change. Elon Musk announced that the company is moving to high-volume production of its brain-computer interface and an almost entirely automated surgical procedure in 2026, with device threads now passing through the dura rather than requiring its removal — a non-trivial reduction in procedure complexity. This week the company also released footage of Brad Smith, an ALS patient and the third recipient of the implant, using the device to drive an external speech apparatus and to type — adding a second modality beyond cursor control.

Separately, Blindsight — Neuralink's vision-restoration implant for the fully blind — is slated for its first human trial in 2026, which would open a second clinical indication alongside the motor/speech N1 program.

Secondary pricing

Neuralink's last primary round was the $650M Series E in June 2025 at a $9B pre-money. With automated surgery and a second indication both landing in 2026, we expect the next marked round to reflect a meaningful step-up; preliminary secondary indications we are seeing this month cluster in the $44B to $48B range. Medtech secondaries trade with wider spreads than pure-software AI names, and Neuralink inventory remains thinner, but the clinical derisking this quarter has meaningfully improved the underwriting case.

Sources — Neuralink

•   Fierce Biotech — Neuralink to kick-start high-volume production

•   MD+DI — Neuralink to Ramp Up BCI Device Production in 2026

•   Neuralink — Raises $650M Series E (Jun 2025)

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ByteDance — Valuation Rerates Past $600B as the TikTok Overhang Clears

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What happened

ByteDance has had a defining quarter. In February, General Atlantic led a secondary sale at a $550B valuation — a 66% markup from the August 2025 company tender at $330B, and a 15% step-up from the November 2025 secondary print at $480B. In recent weeks, a further proposed equity sale from one of the founding shareholders has seen demand cluster at $600B+, per Reuters and SCMP reporting, as multiple parties competed to upsize the original $900M block. On April 16, British tech investor Fred Blackford's >$50M accumulated position was also reported — another data point on foreign-capital appetite for the name.

The single biggest unlock has been regulatory. On January 22, 2026, TikTok formally established TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, with 80.1% of US operations sold to American and global investors (Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX each taking 15%; additional US limited partners taking the balance) and ByteDance retaining 19.9%. The US business was valued at $14B, Oracle assumed security-partner responsibilities and an algorithm retraining mandate on US user data, and the consortium agreed to a $10B transaction fee to the US Treasury. With the ban permanently averted, the US TikTok overhang that compressed ByteDance multiples for three years is effectively gone.

The AI story under the hood

ByteDance is now the reference AI stack in China. Doubao 2.0, launched in February 2026, benchmarks at roughly GPT-5.2 level and has become China's most-used AI app, with DAUs crossing 100M and a16z ranking it the #4 global generative AI app behind ChatGPT and Gemini. Doubao now holds 46.4% share of China's public-cloud LLM market — more than Baidu AI Cloud and Alibaba Cloud combined. The enterprise arm, Volcano Engine, posted RMB 12B revenue in 2024 and is targeting RMB 25B in 2025 and RMB 100B by 2030. To sustain it, ByteDance is budgeting roughly $23B (¥160B) of AI capex for 2026, up from ~¥150B in 2025 — among the largest AI infrastructure commitments globally. Internally, the company began its first Doubao Stock repurchase program on April 15 at $13.08/share — a 30% uplift on the $10 grant price — explicitly framed as AI-talent retention.

What it means for secondary pricing

ByteDance is structurally different from the US AI names in our book. Supply is deeper: some General Atlantic vintages are at the end of their 10–12 year lifecycles and are genuine sellers, and Chinese employees with RSUs have had limited on-shore liquidity options. Demand is broadening: with the TikTok overhang resolved and Doubao's enterprise traction visible, US and Gulf allocators who had self-excluded are returning. Our desk is seeing indicative bids between $580B and $620B this month, with a relatively wider bid-ask than Anthropic but materially better block sizes — we can clear $25–50M SPVs without the crowding that characterizes Anthropic supply. For our Asia-based LPs, ByteDance also carries the cleanest currency and familiarity profile of any name on this week's sheet.

Sources — ByteDance

•   South China Morning Post — ByteDance valuation surges to record $600B+ on proposed equity sale

•   Reuters / Yahoo Finance — ByteDance valuation surges to $550B in stake sale

•   Bloomberg — TikTok Signs Agreements for New US Joint Venture

•   Yahoo Finance / FT — ByteDance plans to spend $23B on AI in 2026

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As always, please reach out with questions or to discuss potential allocations.‍

‍— The Interval Capital Team

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_Disclaimer

_{This memo is prepared by Interval Capital for the information of existing and prospective secondary target companies. It is not an offer to buy or sell any security and should not be construed as investment advice. Valuations, bid-ask indications, and pricing references reflect our reading of the secondary market as of the publication date and may change without notice. Private company information is sourced from public reporting and our proprietary pipeline; figures should be independently verified before any allocation decision.}